Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 9.249153 10.857671 12.623657 14.701100 17.072447 19.689140 22.789211
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.779279 8.957792 11.597717 15.007008 19.265144 24.377696 30.947007
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 5.001777 7.345070 10.442057 14.775033 20.610565 28.118418 38.414979
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.691289 5.972717 9.234468 14.133759 21.178454 30.791848 44.715888
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.818452 4.986514 8.315682 13.643074 21.755332 33.401665 51.070796
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.308414 4.424988 7.887532 13.742719 23.108130 37.143087 59.277461
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.864169 3.863141 7.338531 13.530619 23.900081 40.066633 66.480000
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.657966 3.673457 7.363325 14.231395 26.177552 45.414312 77.756835
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.431490 3.391627 7.168940 14.507685 27.750566 49.747677 87.753487
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.218442 3.086769 6.874321 14.547459 28.894214 53.443238 96.970757
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.042395 2.819209 6.602071 14.578263 30.000611 57.134632 106.418436
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.983781 2.804679 6.836076 15.609187 33.024206 64.334013 122.270502
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.889836 2.691679 6.858636 16.248512 35.431710 70.740589 137.404214
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.802776 2.576986 6.861647 16.853625 37.847444 77.378225 153.471669
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.679720 2.334848 6.532108 16.702288 38.743823 81.297467 164.959244
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.549264 2.033311 6.003045 16.027827 38.486802 83.010558 172.517085
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.448945 1.789473 5.567114 15.494907 38.452354 85.121397 180.929021
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.391746 1.664736 5.415748 15.612247 39.826436 90.091185 195.090062
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.330415 1.505548 5.138755 15.377311 40.384730 93.449836 206.330651
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.310129 1.487556 5.257646 16.161940 43.337537 101.913715 228.133772
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.277940 1.413912 5.198789 16.471162 45.204323 108.226375 245.979481
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.242944 1.316730 5.049386 16.515762 46.442945 113.288624 261.584069
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.212397 1.226712 4.904179 16.550248 47.656468 118.373343 277.524179